There have been anecdotal reports over recent weeks suggesting somewhat of an improvement in sales activity in the Irish housing market. These reports have primarily been associated with substantial price cuts on some developments.

This is encouraging, but we feel it is too early to say we have seen a definitive turn in the market. One important indicator that we have been tracking over recent months is the stock currently for sale. While there is no official indicator on this subject, the stock available for sale on property websites such as Daft.ie provides a pretty good proxy.

As of Friday (February 22nd, 2008), there were c.44,500 second-hand units for sale (the number of new homes on the site is likely to underestimated) on the site. Crucially, the stock number has been rising steadily for the past few months; since the beginning of November, the second-hand housing stock for sale has risen by 4,000. As we noted in our report last November (Housing: An International Perspective), this amounted to c.12 months’ supply at the time.

At current transaction rates, the available is closer to 14 months worth of supply. We are now in the middle of the Spring selling season. Newsflow over the coming weeks will have a large bearing on the outlook for prices, and indeed output plans, over the coming quarters.

Irish Property News.ie, 25 February 2008